The battle for the Premier League crown has taken yet another dramatic twist, with former Arsenal midfielder Paul Merson insisting the momentum has swung firmly towards Manchester City at a decisive stage of the campaign.
Just a few weeks ago, Arsenal appeared in total control. They were moments away from stretching their advantage at the summit to nine points while Manchester City were locked in a tense encounter at Anfield.
But football rarely follows a predictable script. Two late goals from Pep Guardiola’s side ensured the gap remained manageable and, since then, the complexion of the title race has shifted.
Arsenal’s recent results have fuelled fresh uncertainty. A 1-1 stalemate against Brentford was followed by a damaging slip against Wolves, where a two-goal cushion resulted into a draw.
Instead of marching clear, Mikel Arteta’s side now find themselves glancing nervously over their shoulders. The lead that once looked commanding stands at five points heading into a high-stakes north London derby against Tottenham.
City, meanwhile, have the chance to narrow that deficit even further before Arsenal kick a ball. Victory over Newcastle would cut the margin to two points, cranking up the tension ahead of Sunday’s showdown in north London.
Title race momentum swings towards City
For Merson, the psychological edge has changed hands.
“The Premier League title race is in Manchester City’s hands now,” he told Sportskeeda. “If they win every game from now, they win the league title.
“Three weeks ago, you could have never thought it would be this way. It’s quite unbelievable how Arsenal have slipped up.
“If Arsenal beat Tottenham and Newcastle win at the Etihad, it will change. But I can’t see that happening.
“The way everything is playing out in front of us, it’s not looking good for Arsenal. Imagine leading 2-0 and then conceding a draw against Wolves, that is worrying.
“Arsenal did not deserve to win that game if I’m being honest. The only consolation for Arsenal is the fact that Newcastle basically settled the tie against Qarabag with an emphatic win.
“It means that Eddie Howe can play his strongest team against Manchester City this weekend. Even then, I don’t think Newcastle have a chance though.”
Merson’s assessment reflects the broader narrative. Arsenal, chasing a first league title since 2004, have shown resilience for much of the season.
Yet the final stretch often demands a different level of composure. The dropped points have invited scrutiny, while City’s relentless pursuit feels ominously familiar.
Guardiola’s side may not be viewed as his most formidable Manchester City vintage, but history suggests they thrive when the stakes are highest. With six titles from the past eight seasons, they have built a reputation for surging late and suffocating rivals under pressure.
The £20m factor Merson believes could be decisive
Beyond momentum and mentality, Merson has identified a specific influence he believes could tilt the balance — the arrival of England defender Marc Guehi.
Signed in January for £20m from Crystal Palace, Guehi has integrated swiftly into City’s back line. Calm in possession and assured defensively, he has provided stability at a time when fine margins matter most.
Merson argues his presence will have a ripple effect, particularly for Rodri in midfield.
“Rodri is not back to his best, but he knows how to play his role more than anyone. If you want to become a top defensive midfielder, just watch him play,” he said.
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“He does all the simple things right on a consistent basis and that is incredibly hard to do. I expect Rodri to play a crucial role from now until the end of the season.
“With Marc Guehi in the back four now, Rodri doesn’t have to protect City’s defence that much now. I have a feeling Guehi might just be the reason why City catch Arsenal in the title race!
“Expecting a crucial win for City to put real pressure on Arsenal ahead of their derby against Tottenham.”
The suggestion is clear: defensive security can free Rodri to dictate games higher up the pitch. When City’s midfield anchor operates with confidence and clarity, Guardiola’s side often control tempo and territory. Guehi’s presence reduces the burden, potentially sharpening City’s overall balance.
At the other end, Erling Haaland remains a constant threat, while Phil Foden’s creativity and Antoine Semenyo’s energy offer attacking variety. City’s squad depth ensures Guardiola can alter matches from the bench, an advantage that often proves decisive over a long season.
